Airbus predicts global commercial aviation fleet will “double in 20 years”
Resilient aviation sector still growing at more than four per cent
The global commercial aircraft fleet is set to more than double in from nearly 23,000 planes today to almost 48,000 by 2038, according to the latest forecast by Airbus.
With air traffic expected to keep growing at 4.3 per cent annually, the growth over the next two decades will also result in the need for 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians. By 2038, of the forecast 47,680 fleet, 39,210 are new and 8,470 remain from today.
Air traffic has been resilient to economic shocks and has more than doubled since 2000. It now plays an increasing role in connecting large population centres, particularly in emerging markets where cost or geography make alternatives impossible.
Global cities will drive growth
A quarter of the world’s urban population is responsible for more than a quarter of global GDP, with both key growth drivers, the global aviation network will continue to be powered through connection with global cities. Continuing developments in fuel efficiency will also drive demand and will result in the replacement of existing, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Christian Scherer, Airbus chief commercial officer and head of Airbus international said: “The four per cent annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances. Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect.”
“Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP growth and supports 65 million livelihoods, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade.”